Paragould, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS64 KMEG 160003
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
703 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

-Hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the
 week.

-Showers and thunderstorms return today. There is a Slight Risk
 (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms through tonight.

-The northern half of the region is in an Enhanced (3 out of 5)
 Risk alongside a Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk within our far
 northern counties for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday
 through the middle of next week with another chance for severe
 storms Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Warm weather continues today underneath upper ridging with highs
in the upper 80s that will last through tomorrow. High moisture
still resides throughout the region with incredible instability
within an increasingly sheared environment. Storms have already
begun to fire in W AR, which is contrary to what much of this
mornings` CAM guidance suggested. Forecast soundings, although
potentially now unreliable, retain a stout EML below 700 mb
throughout the region which could prevent a more significant
severe threat. Regardless, DCAPE above 500 J/kg and mid-level
lapse rates above 8 C/km alongside 40+ knots of bulk shear will
allow for organized bowing line segments and hail. KNQA and KLZK
radar observation support this with storms expected to move
through NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and NW TN this evening. Because of
the EML and weak forcing, development further south is unlikely
at this time, but will be monitored over the coming hours. Storms
will likely diminish in strength after 00z as capping increases.

Given the current trends this afternoon, thunderstorm activity
tonight is growing more uncertain. However, CAM guidance has
stubbornly held on to the idea of convection after 06z as the LLJ
intensifies alongside continued upper height falls. The effects
of this afternoon convection are likely to reduce some
instability from portions of the region, but unaffected areas
could see more development tonight. Forecast soundings depict a
similar environment to this afternoon with high MUCAPE/Shear that
would suggest a severe hail and damaging wind threat lasting
through tomorrow morning. Again, this is a very uncertain
forecast that could evolve in as little as a few hours but
confidence is increasing in severe thunderstorms tonight.

By tomorrow morning, the upper low that has been dominating this
weeks weather will be parked over the Great Lakes. To its south, a
seasonably strong jet streak is forecast to form over the Ohio
River Valley granting strong shear across the entire region.
Continued southerly advection is expected to overcome any
modification of surface moisture that occurs tonight. By early
afternoon short range and CAM guidance paints 3000+ MLCAPE over
much of the region. Any capping is likely to be overcome as
temperatures swell into the upper 80s with the potential for
storms beginning as early as 2 PM with storms forming along and
ahead of a cold front. Forecast soundings display relatively
straight hodographs, which would favor splitting supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging winds early on. Later in
the evening, hodograph curvature begins to increase that indicates
higher tornado potential near and after sunset, especially with
any discrete storms. Additionally, the potential for outflow
boundaries and areas of enhanced SRH exists from tonight`s
convection. Storm coverage remains uncertain still with the
potential for a mix of supercells and bowing line segments both
along and ahead of the surface cold front.

Storms will continue well into the overnight hours, but increasing
capping is expected to reduce the severity of any remaining
convection with time. The cold front will advance into N MS
Saturday and stall as the upper jet lifts to our east. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible around the quasi-stationary
boundary Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall totals through Sunday
currently sit between 1-2" with locally heavier amounts likely.

Going into next week, medium range guidance progs a new trough
ejection in the Central Plains. The stationary boundary will then
lift north, allowing for more warm, tropical weather by mid-week.
Diurnal showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon. Another
severe threat appears possible on Tuesday as the system makes its
way through the Midsouth, but model discrepancies with respect to
previous days` convection reduces confidence in what hazards will
occur at this time. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
good agreement that a northwesterly upper pattern will take hold
after Tuesday. Therefore, temperatures are expected to cool off to
end the period with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Multiple distinct rounds of precip will impact all terminals
except TUP this TAF period due to a slow moving cold front.
Already had one round of precip that is currently exiting the
area, so have left VCSH for the next several hours just to account
for some straggling showers left over. Next round looks to pick
up overnight tonight with the potential for briefly reduced
visibilities/ceilings and TSRA. Hi res guidance also wants to hold
onto some more widespread MVFR cigs along the boundary early in
the morning tomorrow. Much of the day looks largely dry tomorrow
with VFR conditions quickly returning after sunrise. The main show
of very well organized thunderstorms with damaging winds arrives
after 00Z Sat and will likely pack a punch, especially for the
northern terminals. Gusty non-thunderstorm winds from the SW are
likely for the majority of the day into the evening tomorrow as
well.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD